Probabilistic Thinking

I have struggled for some time on whether to start talking about probabilities as they relate to foreign exchange trading -- at least with people other than those whom I train.

The reason behind my reluctance is that this is a huge area of study, and once you start going down this road, it can start to engulf you to the point of absolute confusion. So I'm providing this link that I believe simplifies the topic and provides an adequate (although not simplistic) introduction to the concept.

One other note: although probabilistic thinking should play a vital role in your trading, it doesn't have to. In other words -- you're more likely than not to be successful at trading if you engage in probabilistic thinking. No pun intended there, by the way. Get your base of knowledge about fundamental and technical indicators. Then get a bit of training in probabilities.

Here's the link:

Princeton University's Probabilistic Thinking Page

The first article on the list, named "Subjective Probability" is the one I'm referring to.

Comments

[Paul Stokes]

Rob, that link seems to be AWOL

[Paul Stokes]

Rob
Got it - took out the extra http:.
Pls remove comment.

[Jeff Davids]

Thanks for the link. BTW Have you abandoned your blog?

[Bert]

Nice work! Anyone doing technical analysis must, at least sooner or later, tackle stats and probabilities. For their sake, the sooner the better!

[don]

Forex Capital Market - News
Foreign Exchange (Forex) Trading is a nonstop cash market where currencies of nations are traded, typically via brokers. Foreign currencies are constantly and simultaneously bought and sold across local and global markets while traders increase or decrease value of an investment upon currency movements. Foreign exchange market conditions can change at any time in response to real-time events

http://forexcapitalmarket.blogspot.com/

[ForexGuy]

When I first started looking into forex the amount of information available was overwhelming, it made my head spin. Good topic.